 Below
are the abstracts for the technical presentations scheduled for this years
meeting.
(Subject to change. )
ADVERSE CONDITIONS (ADV)
(ADV.01) (Panel Discussion - Part 1) Planning for Post-Disaster Project Controls
Primary Author: Dr Randy R Rapp PE CCE Purdue University
Co-author(s): Mr Edward E Douglas III CCC PSP ACTPMA LLC Consulting
Subject Level: Advanced 
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room M102
Abstract: Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction planning involves unique preparations and contracting requirements in order to effectively support the commercial facilities and the public agencies (PA) responsible for recovery and rebuilding after natural disasters.
This panel of disaster response experts will address planning for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction as well as the importance of implementing technical and applied engineering solutions into disaster recovery plans. It is essential to participate in planning for project management as part of the comprehensive disaster post-disaster recovery and reconstruction efforts at the local level, which, in turn, is commonly supported and funded by state, regional, and federal response offices.
Project management, support and organization for field operations, teamwork, communications and responsive leadership are important components for the success of the post-disaster recovery efforts. These are even more important for success in disaster recovery management, where the ability to manage in temporally and logistically demanding circumstances is vital.
(ADV.02) (Panel Discussion - Part 2) Project Controls for Natural Disaster Recovery
Primary Author: Mr Edward E Douglas III CCC PSP ACTPMA LLC Consulting
Co-author(s): Dr Randy R Rapp PE CCE Purdue University
Subject Level: Intermediate
Time/Location: WED 2:30-3:30/Room M102
Abstract: Natural disasters occur in a variety of shapes, sizes and types: earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunami, severe storms, floods and wild fires are among the natural disasters that all create unique challenges. Government organizations alone lack sufficient resources to fully respond to the needs within the stricken area. Contractors must comprise a major part of the post disaster response. The responses must be rapid and flexible to overcome these challenges and be successful on disaster recovery (restoration and reconstruction) projects. Project Controls must be prepared to support these unique requirements.
The panel members are experienced disaster response participants and will discuss their post-disaster project management experiences. With a focus primarily on hurricanes and floods the panel presentations will discuss unique (critical) requirements for successful project management and project controls support of disaster restoration and reconstruction projects in contrast to the requirements for conventional construction projects.
BUILDING INFORMATION MODELING (BIM)
(BIM.01) Underdeveloped and Underutilized: Cost Estimating in BIM
Primary Author: Ms Tamera Lee McCuen University of Oklahoma
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room M102
Abstract: Building Information Modeling (BIM) is an evolving technology and methodology in the Architecture/Engineering/Construction industry impacting the cost estimator. More owners require BIM for the design and construction of projects. Consequently this has led to more A/E/C companies adopting and implementing BIM to compete. However few have gone beyond the graphics, clash detection, or sequencing, to the information critical for the cost estimator. Cost estimating is the underdeveloped and underutilized in BIM. Clarification of the cost estimators role in a BIM team, along with the responsibilities other team members have in supporting the estimators role, is important. This paper discusses the impact BIM is having on the cost estimator and reports results about the current state of practice. A discussion of the roles, responsibilities, technical skills, and knowledge of the designers and estimators in a BIM team, along with their respective contributions to a model, provides the framework for understanding.
(BIM.02) Integrated Cost Budgeting and Estimating Model for Building Projects
Primary Author: Mr Sarmad Al-Mashta Concordia University
Co-author(s): Dr Sabah Alkass P Eng Concordia University
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room M102
Abstract: The vital role of reliable cost estimate in the various phases of building projects is beyond dispute. However, in traditional context, detailed cost estimate preparation requires lengthy hours. Consequently, it is not feasible to be performed repetitively. Considering that, cost estimate is performed at design phases milestones and at bidding, leaving gaps were project cost can grow out of control.
This paper presents an integrated cost budgeting and cost estimating model for building projects. By integrating multiple cost databases with Building Information Modeling (BIM) geometrical data, the proposed model streamlines the process of cost estimation. The generated estimate complies with AACE class 1 / class 2 classification. As well, its capacity to render cost estimates in multiple work breakdown structures simultaneously permits its implementation in both design and construction phases (e.g. UniFormat as assembly based for design phases, and MasterFormat as trade based for bidding, and construction).
(BIM.03) Sharing Project Data Reduces Conflict
Primary Author: Mr William R Zollinger III PE RV Buric Construction Consultants
Co-author(s): Mr. David L. Sutton PE RV Buric Construction Management Consultants; Mr. Gary R. Montler PSP Buric Consultants; Mr. Mark M. Seifried PE RV Buric Construction Management Consultants
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room M102
Abstract: In 2005, Buric posed the rhetorical question "Does sharing project data create claims?" and demonstrated how sharing information helps to avoid claims and improve projects.
As the industry embraces the evolving capabilities and knowledge of Building Information Modeling (BIM), it must also embrace the transparency needed for project success. A great number of steps involving technology, protocol, process, and policy must be addressed in order for projects to achieve integrated design solutions.
For projects implementing integrated design solutions transparency and candor must accompany this evolutionary development for the participating parties to resolve the risk sharing.
3D BIM models can produce a wealth of data. It is the implementation of effective project controls systems that transforms data into information.
CLAIMS AND DISPUTE
RESOLUTION (CDR)
(CDR.01) Demystifying the Law of Lost Productivity Claims
Primary Author: Mr Christopher J Brasco Esq Watt Tieder Hoffar & Fitzgerald LLP
Co-author(s): Mr Christopher Michael Anzidei
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room Int'l A
Abstract: This paper will analyze several difficulties that practitioners face in proving, pricing, and defending against lost productivity claims. For many years, courts have struggled to define both the level of proof required to establish a lost productivity claim and the most reliable means to quantify impact damages. One federal judge even likened impact claims to First Amendment obscenity cases, stating that the concept may not be exactly definable, but I know it when I see it. Our paper will examine recent case law and address several aspects of impact claims that have proven to be challenging to both judges and practitioners. Among other specific topics, our paper will address why courts and practitioners struggle to establish common standards for lost productivity claims, why certain methodologies have achieved greater acceptance, and how courts account for both common contract clauses and prior change orders in assessing the merits of productivity claims.
(CDR.02) Which Critical Path: As-Planned, Contemporaneous, or As-Built?
Primary Author: Mr Mark F Nagata Trauner Consulting Svcs Inc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room Int'l A
Abstract: Since a project can only be delayed along the critical path, correctly identifying the critical path is essential to determine the actual delays to the project. Though the identification of a projects critical path should be a relatively straightforward task, the analysts decision to rely on the as-planned critical path, the contemporaneous critical path, the as-built critical path, or some amalgam to identify and measure the critical project delays can result in the identification of different critical paths of work for the same project. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the merits and weaknesses of each method used to identify the critical path. The paper will also advocate the establishment of a standard approach based on a thorough understanding of the attributes of each method and widely-accepted best project management practices.
(CDR.03) CPMs Half Century Gold Rush
Primary Author: Mr. Jeffery L. Ottesen PE PSP CFCC Alta Cascade Inc
Co-author(s): Ms Greta A Martin PSP Alta Cascade
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room Int'l A
Abstract: In his Socratic dialogue "The Republic," Plato calls necessity the mother of invention. With the advent of CPM scheduling in the 1950s, the need for a new discipline in scheduling analysis was borne and various methodologies emerged. Fifty years later, at least nine different types of CPM analysis exist, and variations made within each type render an even larger number. In the claims industry where an experts credentials are key and compliance with Daubert criteria matter, claimed authorship and acceptance of a methodology is often disputed. In an effort to diffuse such conflicts, research was performed and a chronology formulated to track the evolution and acceptance of CPM analyses. This paper summarizes results of this effort, recognizes pioneers in CPM schedule analysis and lists contributions made to the new discipline that today we commonly call Forensic Schedule Analysis.
(CDR.05) Revisiting Lost Productivity: A Primer and Update for the Industry
Primary Author: Mr John J Ciccarelli PE CCE PSP Deloitte FAS
Co-author(s): Mr Michael J Bennink PE CCE PSP Deloitte FAS
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room Int'l A
Abstract: In 2004, AACE International published Recommended Practice No. RP25-03, Estimating Lost Labor Productivity in Construction Claims. The intent of the RP was to identify methodologies for estimating lost productivity, rank order methodologies, define and discuss each methodology and identify selected studies applicable to each methodology. The Claims and Dispute Resolution Committee initiated an effort to update RP25-03 to identify new issues and studies that were not included within the original RP, include example calculations and update the narrative and structure of the RP. This paper will focus on the basics of productivity and using productivity methodologies in claims as published in RP25-03. The paper will then discuss the substantive changes recommended by industry professionals and considered in the update to RP25-03.
(CDR06) The As-Built Critical Path - Quest or Discovery?
Primary Author: Mr John C Livengood CFCC ARCADIS
Co-author(s): Mr. Jeffery L. Ottesen PE PSP CFCC Alta Cascade Inc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room Int'l A
Abstract: Good schedulers work hard to make their products accurately represent the anticipated sequence of work so managers can plan their resources, adjust for unanticipated events, and owners can plan when they will be able to use their new construction. Among those sequences that interest schedulers the most is the critical path. Forensic schedulers work hard to explain why the anticipated sequence of work did NOT occur as planned. Those forensic schedulers are vitally interested in what judges sometimes call the as-built critical path to help in that explanation. Yet considerable debate exists concerning the very concept and existence of an as-built critical path. Jeff feels the as-built critical path and leprechauns are to be found in the same place, while John knows that like global warming, the evidence is clear as to the existence of the as-built critical path. We will focus our debate on both the semantics of the term "as-built critical path" and the actual existence of such a concept, regardless of the words used to describe it.
(CDR.07) Practical Issues in Loss of Efficiency Claims
Primary Author: Mr Robert A Dieterle CCE Hill International Inc
Co-author(s): Mr Thomas A Gaines Hill International
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 11:00-12:00/Room Int'l A
Abstract: When a Contractor makes a claim for delay, disruption or acceleration, damages associated with loss of productivity are almost always a component of the overall cost impact. This category of damages is often very substantial and can frequently be the largest individual item in a Contractors claim. Once an Owner and Contractor begin negotiating, loss of productivity damages frequently become the most glaring point of contention between the two parties. Often times, Contractors that may have been legitimately impacted do not provide a supportable calculation that provides a causal linkage between the event(s) and resultant damages. This results in a real dilemma to the Owner who has little basis to assess the true financial impact to the Contractor, even in the face of acknowledged issues for which the Owner bears responsibility. The negotiating environment created by this lack of understanding can be counterproductive to reaching a mutually beneficial agreement.
This paper will explore the origins of this misunderstanding, from the perspective of both parties. It will look at the different methods for presenting a loss of productivity claim and assess their relative strengths and weaknesses. Finally, this paper will provide some practical considerations for both Contractors and Owners to contemplate when presenting and evaluating a loss of productivity claim.
(CDR.08) Evidence Issues in Forensic Use of CPM Scheduling
Primary Author: Dr. Fredric L. Plotnick PE EnProMaC Inc
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room Int'l A
Abstract: The reliability of the mathematics behind CPM analysis has been accepted by many courts. However, like recent questions of "accepted" science, such as fingerprints, there are some additional issues that should be examined. This presentation will discuss the known issues of reliability of a CPM, suggest means to address such issues, and consider new means of review to develop a more reliable analysis.
Included in the discussion is consideration of the probability of completion prior to the late date claimed caused by a litigant, alternate critical paths as well as near critical paths, and determination if the claimed delay is through a chain of physical based logic or through a preferred deployment of resources.
Features of Primavera Pertmaster (now known as Oracle Risk Analysis) and Deltek Open Plan that may assist in claim preparation and evaluation will be explored.
(CDR.09) Bumps in the Road on the Way to Trial
Primary Author: Mr Michael C Ray PE CCE PSP Legis Consultancy Inc
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room Int'l A
Abstract: Often unexpected things happen as a dispute moves from notice to expert report to deposition to trial. The expert witness is expected to be flexible, absorb these bumps and use them to his/her clients advantage when possible. The author recounts some of his own experiences, discusses how they came about, how they were handled and the lessons learned. One example: Six months before trial the author prepared and submitted an expert report which relied on a reasonable interpretation of a contract clause. Ten days before trial the judge, responding to an earlier motion, ruled that the interpretation on which the expert report was based was invalid. Attempts to delay the trial were unsuccessful. The author had to wing it at trial.
(CDR.10) Disadvantages and Advantages of Dispute Review Boards
Primary Author: Dr Kathleen M J Harmon Harmon/York Associates Inc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room Int'l A
Abstract: Dispute Review Boards originated in 1974 and have been used by such agencies as Cal Trans, Florida DOT, NYC/MTA, etc.
But are DRBs truly the answer? Does having a DRB on a project practically guarantees that every dispute will be resolved at the jobsite as claimed by others? What are the disadvantages of a DRB? While there are significant writings on the positive affects of DRBs most are based on anecdotal stories, there is very little on the disadvantages of a DRB. When determining what dispute resolution mechanisms to put into a contract, an Owner needs to weight all the advantages and risks of such a process conversely a contractor needs to weight the risks of the entire contract including the dispute resolution mechanism.
This seminar will enable contractual parties to make determinations as to whether or not the DRB process is right for their project.
(CDR.11) The Spearin Doctrine Revisited
Primary Author: Mr Jean-Paul Prentice CCE Pacific Construction Consultants, Inc.
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room Int'l A
Abstract: The Spearin Doctrine is fundamental to any assignment of responsibility or risk to any party in a construction contract. New developments have arisen since The Spearin Doctrine in 2004 AACE Transactions. Recent legal precedents have refined owner risks in contract delay clauses. AIA A201-2007 introduced the Independent Decision Maker IDM in an effort to settle disputes as they arise. Building Information Modeling BIM is redefining design and construction responsibility in hope of reducing design costs and time. Imagine a process plant with no orthographic drawings. Some states have enacted statutes enabling public agencies to use the design-build delivery method, changing the relationship between designer and constructor. And not least among these, the battle of the forms continues with new documents from Associated Owners & Developers, ConsensusDocs, AIA, AGC, and Engineers Joint Council.
(CDR.12) Dealing With Cumulative Impact Claims
Primary Author: Ms Emelyn Warde Martinez CCC Systech International
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room Int'l A
Abstract: When changes in a certain project become numerous and act concurrently, it creates a compounding effect in the life of the project and to this date, there is no definitive standard to calculate such loss of productivity claims. Many courts and other legislative bodies recognize that there is cumulative impact above and beyond the change itself however, current construction contracts do not typically include adequate language to enable fair and equitable compensation for the unforeseen impact of cumulative change. The construction industry, courts, and arbitration panels agree that the theory of cumulative impact is reasonable, and that multiple change orders and other types of delays and disruption can negatively impact the performance of the changed work such that a contractor expends additional time, man-hours and costs in completing its unchanged base scope work.
(CDR.13) Differing Site Conditions - Why, What and How?
Primary Author: Mr Faik Burak Evrenosoglu CCE PSP Fluor
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room Int'l A
Abstract: One of the major unknowns in construction projects is latent physical conditions. Most of the construction contracts contain a differing site conditions clause which allocates the risk of latent and subsurface unknowns that the contractor could not have anticipated by a reasonable site investigation to the owner. Differing site conditions clauses appear in the standard construction contract forms of the Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR), American Institute of Architects General Conditions of Contract, and FIDIC. These clauses share common elements. To prevail in a differing site condition claim or to refute it, a clear understanding of these elements is crucial.
This paper identifies and demonstrates the elements of both Type I and Type II differing site condition claims using case briefs.
(CDR.S01) Changing the Boundaries of Client/Contractor Shared Risk
Primary Author: Mr Douglas Alan Findley CCC PSP EVP Business Control Solutions LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45/Room Int'l A
Abstract: Every contract acts as the instrument dividing Client-owned risks from Contractor-owned risks and risks that fall into the category of shared. Many disputes that arise between these parties stem from liability for schedule time and monetary claims. Optimally, the client wants the best hard money contract, no bonus for early finish, and no Claim For Delay. Conversely, the contractor needs to be able to claim delay and added costs for any interface or unanticipated condition that does not support his project execution plan. Todays contracts will likely fall between these two, and this is where claims and disputes thrive. A change to the traditional ownership of Critical Path Total Float to contractor owning both Critical Path and Near Critical Path Total Float can be a mechanism which more aptly assigns risk found in this middle ground, thus lessening the potential for protracted claims processes and subsequent mediation and arbitration.
TECHNICAL COMMITTEE AND SIG MEETINGS (COM)
(COM.01) Planning and Scheduling Committee Meeting
Primary Author: Mr. Ronald M Winter PSP Ron Winter Consulting LLC
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room M106
(COM.02) Cost Estimating Committee Meeting
Primary Author: Mr Bernard A Pietlock CCC CEP DuPont
Co-Author: Mr. Douglas W Leo, CCC CEP MRICS Censeo Project Solutions
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room Int'l B
(COM.03) Claims and Dispute Resolution Committee Meeting (1)
Primary Author: Mr John C Livengood CFCC ARCADIS
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room Int'l A
(COM.04) Claims and Dispute Resolution Committee Meeting (2)
Primary Author: Mr John C Livengood CFCC ARCADIS
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 4:45-5:45/Room Int'l A
(COM.05) Decision and Risk Management Committee Meeting
Primary Author: Mr. Michael W Curran Decision Sciences Corp
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room M104
(COM.06) Earned Value Management Committee Meeting
Primary Author: Dr. Robert A Marshall General Services Administration
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 4:45-5:45/Room M302
(COM.07) BIM Committee Meeting
Primary Author: Mr. Philip D Larson, CCE PSP CEP Project & Cost Control
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 4:45-5:45/Room M102
COST AND SCHEDULE CONTROL (CSC)
(CSC.02) Budgeting for Federal Buildings using Parametric Models
Primary Author: Mr William H Hunt CCC PSP CEP General Services Admin
Co-author(s): Mr. Peter Henry Morris Davis Langdon
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room M302
Abstract: Recently the General Services Administration (GSA) commissioned a cost unit study for federal office buildings, courthouses and laboratories nationwide, covering twelve core/shell types and thirty two tenant improvement types. The purpose of this study was to identify cost drivers and establish quantitative and qualitative cost parameters to create construction cost models and provide an improved basis of pricing for GSAs Cost Review Guide. The study also developed cost and parametric sensitivity ranges for each building and TI space type, including seismic and security costs variances. This paper presents both the findings of the study and a dynamic parametric estimating model which was developed based on the study findings, and which allows users to enter information at different levels of detail to generate an estimate for each core/shell and space plan.
(CSC.03) Infrastructure Asset Life Cycle Cost Analysis Issues
Primary Author: Dr Douglas D Gransberg PE CCE University Of Oklahoma
Co-author(s): Mr. Eric Scheepbouwer University of Canterbury
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 11:00-12:00/Room M302
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the issues that cost engineers encounter in with life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of infrastructure assets. To keep the discussion simple, it will focus specifically on highway pavement economics in the US, New Zealand, and Canada. It is critical that cost engineers recognize these issues so that LCCA output can be deemed fair to all technical alternatives. The overarching issue that must be addressed is the fundamental theory that if alternatives are compared over the same period of analysis using the same interest rate, then the analysis is fair and objective. When the theory is applied to the comparison of asset alternatives that have radically different technical aspects (i.e. concrete versus asphalt) and dissimilar service lives, some of the fundamental assumptions made in classic engineering economic theory no longer apply and the output is faulty.
(CSC.04) Influence of Green Building on Project Costs
Primary Author: Dr. John A. Kuprenas PE Vanir Construction Management
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room M302
Abstract: This work presents the findings of a recent study for a large public sector educational building program on how project costs are impacted by green/sustainable building requirements that have been included in the design and construction of the facilities. The study examines the correlation between the use of green/sustainable measures included on the project and cost measures such as total project cost, construction cost, design costs, and construction change order cost. Based on data from over 50 large, public sector, educational building program projects completed over the last 5 years, this paper quantifies the cost impact and suggests best practices for cost engineers and project managers working for other public sector agencies when implementing green/sustainable building elements. Conclusions to the paper include suggestions for expansion of the research/lessons learned, as well as future research of factors that influence project cost and green/sustainable construction.
(CSC.05) Project Baseline Management and Change Control
Primary Author: Mr Steven W Wageman CCC PSP EVP MWH Program & Project Management Services
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room M302
Abstract: Appropriate management of changes to the scope, schedule, and cost baselines of a project is critical to performance measurement and success, particularly when earned value management is an executive or client requirement. In this paper, project baseline management and change control will be defined, the conditions for and timing of formal change control will be described, the stakeholders of change control and their respective roles will be outlined, and the best practices related to baseline change control will be detailed. Best practices include understanding and managing the differences between the project management and product development life cycles, utilizing rolling-wave planning when justified, not changing historical planned and actual performance values, and using appropriate baseline change control mechanics within common scheduling tools such as Primavera Project Management 6.2, Primavera Project Planner for Windows 3.1, and MS Office Project 2007.
(CSC.08) Change Control That Saves Big Bucks!
Primary Author: Mr. Dave Draper EVP SM & A
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room M302
Abstract: Control of project changes typically confronts three major challenges:
Determining what the change should cost
Deciding if the change is cost effective
Negotiating the price change to the contract
This paper reveals the remarkable success of a simple but effective approach to change control that was applied to a very large, 200 contract, municipal infrastructure program. Use of this approach during a six-year construction period resulted in a documented savings of over $20 million and contributed to recognition of an extremely well managed program. Most change proposals came from the various construction contractors and maintaining a productive relationship between the owner and the contracting community was considered very important.
This is an informative and compelling presentation of useful change control methods. It draws from actual program data with summaries/conclusions that will appeal to all management levels dealing with program change challenges.
(CSC.09) Performance Metrics Based on Forecast Variance -- A Case Study
Primary Author: Mr Logan Anjaneyulu PSP CEP Prilogsys, LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room M302
Abstract: In order meet the compliance expectations set forth by the post-Enron standards, organizations geared up to implement some serious performance metric systems to monitor and control the way money is planned, spent, tracked and reported. One of the significant components of such an internal control metric system is forecast variance. Forecast what you want to spend, and account for what you have spent. The purpose of this article is to briefly outline the importance of forecast variance as an internal control performance metric, and explain to the cost engineering community the steps involved in achieving best forecast variance results with a case study. In relevance to authors primary involvement with the oil and gas industry, the capital programs presented in this article are primarily from this industry. Oil and gas industrys soaring capital expenditures in recent years make this article more significant.
(CSC.10) Change is the Only Constant
Primary Author: Ms Alexia A Nalewaik MRICS CCE QS Requin Corporation
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room M103
Abstract: It is change, continuing change, inevitable change that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.
Scientists (Isaac Asimov), numerous philosophers (Heraclitus), and project managers have long tackled the concept of change. Yet, changes remain the most common source of disagreement during the course of construction. This paper discusses change management as an organizational objective, with a focus on trend analysis, risk evaluation, contingency management, and reporting as tools to lessen impacts to the scope, schedule, quality and cost of the project.
(CSC.S04) Developing Subcontract Pricing as Applied to Building Construction
Primary Author: Mr John Cheek Long International
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room M302
Abstract: The paper will provide a guideline to commercial construction cost engineers for the development of a plan for obtaining and utilizing subcontractor cost information for use in bidding, procurement, scheduling, change order management, and claim management.
The paper will be based upon personal field experience gained in cost engineering, scheduling, bidding, planning, contracting, and claim analyses. The paper will be unique in that it provides discussion on the utilization of subcontractor�s cost information from the beginning of estimate planning, bidding, and for potential additional cost claims.
The paper will present specific information for the application of best practices and recommended guidelines for use by contractors, cost engineers and consultants.
The results presented in the paper will indicate how cost engineering can be enhanced by the practical utilization of subcontractor cost data throughout the various stages of project estimating, procurement, scheduling, cost claims and historical cost. Application of this guideline will provide improved cost control throughout the various phases of the construction process.
(CSC.S12) Controls and Audit Devices for Claims Management
Primary Author: Ms Alexia A Nalewaik MRICS CCE QS Requin Corporation
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 4:45-5:45/Room M103
Abstract: Construction projects temporarily bind together parties with
competing objectives and a common goal. The result is a situation
characterized by high potential for conflict, changes and claims. The
skills of the quantity surveyor, auditor, and project controls are
invaluable to claims management and resolution. This paper discusses
claims avoidance as an organizational objective, using the
implementation of project controls and audit tools to address and focus
efforts on minimizing the occurrence and impacts of claims through
internal controls, accurate record-keeping, contract administration, and
change management methodologies.
PROFESSIONAL
DEVELOPMENT (DEV)
(DEV.01) Curriculum Development Based Upon TCM Framework
Primary Author: Mr John Jeffrey Hannon CEP University of Southern Mississippi
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room M103
Abstract: The author is an Associate Professor teaching project controls to graduate and undergraduate students at a United States university. Tasked with delivering a sixteen-week course wide in scope of skill and knowledge, the (Total Cost Management) TCM Framework was adopted as the basis. The organization of the Framework allowed for modularization and sequencing of the course content, freeing the instructor to concentrate on the development of laboratory exercises and applications of the concepts. Additionally, the course contained a section of on-line, distance-learning students which would never set foot in the classroom. The TCM Framework provided the organization and content (along with aligned Recommended Practices documents). This paper shares some of the successes gained by utilizing the Framework and lessons learned from delivering the course in another structured format. The content of the paper will be useful to academics as well as to organizations in industry which develop and deliver training for the skills and knowledge of Cost Engineering.
(CSC.S01) Value Engineering Applications in Construction
Primary Author: Mr Thomas H Neidecker PE Neidecker Construction Management LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room M302
Abstract: This paper will present several real life examples of value engineering (VE) / cost saving examples on construction projects. It will also discuss the process of VE and the collaboration needed from the Owner, Architect, and other team members. The timing of presenting VE ideas will be discussed, as well at the cost and schedule impact, with cost estimates. Diagrams and photographs will be provided. The goal of the paper and presentation will be to stimulate thought and discussion from the audience about successes and failures related to VE Ideas, and the hesitation by contractors and others to challenge the design, offend the architect / engineer, and incur liability for potential problems caused by their VE ideas.
Some of the VE Examples will include:
- Skylight Framing Options for Improved Day-lighting and Cost Reduction (Nestle Product Technology Center)
- Reducing the number of HVAC Units (with increased size) for better control, performance, and lower cost (Tigerpoly Manufacturing)
- Using a closed-loop tower to minimize use of chillers, save energy, and reduce operating costs (Tigerpoly)
- Bid Pack Scopes to Avoid Inefficiency and Cost (Nestle and PharmaForce)
(CSC.S02) Where Has the Cost Focus Gone?
Primary Author: Ms Trudi Bissett I-Quantum Solutions
Co-Author: Dr John G Buchan I-Quantum Solutions
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room M302
Abstract: This is a case study based on over 20 assessments of operations in the past 5 years which consistently show a significant gap in the area of cost and budget management. The drive for financial reporting rather than operational budget reporting has changed the role of the cost engineer. The paper looks at the gaps which are within the organizations processes and systems, the impact of those gaps and the underlying root causes. Ultimately it appraises the budget performance of the operations given the lack of budget management and what impact that is having on the overall performance of the asset in the long term. What steps need to be taken in this area if the field life of marginal operations are to be extended, and are the organizations today recognizing the need to change?.
PROFESSIONAL
DEVELOPMENT (DEV)
(DEV.01) Curriculum Development Based Upon TCM Framework
Primary Author: Mr John Jeffrey Hannon CEP University of Southern Mississippi
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room M103
Abstract: The author is an Associate Professor teaching project controls to graduate and undergraduate students at a United States university. Tasked with delivering a sixteen-week course wide in scope of skill and knowledge, the (Total Cost Management) TCM Framework was adopted as the basis. The organization of the Framework allowed for modularization and sequencing of the course content, freeing the instructor to concentrate on the development of laboratory exercises and applications of the concepts. Additionally, the course contained a section of on-line, distance-learning students which would never set foot in the classroom. The TCM Framework provided the organization and content (along with aligned Recommended Practices documents). This paper shares some of the successes gained by utilizing the Framework and lessons learned from delivering the course in another structured format. The content of the paper will be useful to academics as well as to organizations in industry which develop and deliver training for the skills and knowledge of Cost Engineering.
(DEV.02) Downstream Schedule Analysis for NON-Schedulers
Primary Author: Ms Amanda M Madl
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room M103
Abstract: The objective is to discuss how someone without a scheduling background or access to scheduling software can perform simple, but powerful analysis of downstream project schedules based on historical data.
The first topic covered will be the data that needs to be collected as well as how to relate dollars to durations. This information will allow for historical data to be used to develop equations to create an analysis tool.
The paper will discuss some common sense rules of thumb for use in evaluating schedules such as typical phase overlaps. This topic will lead into the final topic, top concerns to be on the look out for when evaluating a schedule.
With this relatively simple information, anyone can perform a high level evaluation of a schedule for refining and chemical facility projects. This information can help non-schedulers to validate schedule information they are provided when developing estimates or benchmarks and catch disconnects before they become major issues for a project.
(DEV.03) Increasing Productivity in a Volunteer Organization
Primary Author: Mr William E Kraus PE CCE International Aviation Consultants
Co-author(s): Mr Patrick Steven Ray CCC Legis Consultancy Inc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 11:00-12:00/Room M103
Abstract: The process of achieving goals in a predominantly volunteer organization is substantially different than in an traditionally-organized business organization but is not that different from how one gets things done in a matrix organization. The challenge in both a matrix organization and in a volunteer organization such as AACE International or similar organizations is the necessity to inspire people over whom one has no direct authority or incentive tools such as the power of the paycheck.
Our paper begins by examining the idea of traditional authority and then the alternative forms of authority. We then discuss how exercising these types of authority does and does not work in a volunteer organization. We bring up the rear by offering specific techniques and insights into inspiring people to volunteer for efforts within the Association and setting and achieving goals for growth and improvement, both for the Association and the individual.
(DEV.05) (Panel Discussion) Managing a Cost Engineer Business Entity
Primary Author: Dr John O Evans III PSP John Evans, Architect
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room M103
Abstract: Present a Panel Discussion Four presenters: each being owner's of a small to mid-sized Cost Engineering business where the processes of office structure and office management are illustrated through first hand experiences. The intent is, through experience, to provide guidance to audience members for "best practices" in successful business management of a small to mid-sized cost engineering practice.
A ten minute presentation by each panel member will be followed by an open question/answer period.
ESTIMATING (EST)
(EST.01) Pitfalls of Early Estimates and Scope Definition
Primary Author: Mr Kul B Uppal PE CEP Conquest Consulting Group
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room Int'l B
Abstract: In the early stages of a project life cycle or of a phased project management process, capital cost estimating is closely related to the search for viable alternatives. As new alternatives are explored, the estimate is redone. Invariably, certain parts have to be recalculated, and at times the whole estimates may change. This procedure is inevitable, since all possible alternatives on a project must be explored so that the best solution is reached. However a distinct problem arises when a management review of the project includes a comparison of a new cost estimate with those that have supposedly become redundant embarrassment arises when no easy explanation can be given. This paper explores the possibility of compiling a well documented development procedure for project scope definition through the use of gated project management process. This in turn will help the ongoing challenge for any project leadership to deliver projects on time and within approved funds to grow stakeholders confidence which is the life line for any company.
(EST.02) Web Technology - Centralized & Collaborative Estimating
Primary Author: Mr Philip D Larson CCE PSP CEP Project & Cost Control
Co-author(s): Mr. Stephen F. Williams US Cost
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room Int'l B
Abstract: "Web Technology - Centralized & Collaborative Estimating" will explain the benefits of a web based estimating application vs. traditional client, or PC (personal computer) based applications, including the unique capability to have multiple team members in the same estimate at the same time. More and more organizations are moving to web based solutions and those in the estimating and project controls arena are no exception. Web-based solutions give Estimators, Project Managers and Owners real-time, simultaneous access to their cost data and estimating projects, reduce the chance for error and lower IT support cost. Utilizing centralized databases yield benefits such as cross project reporting and data mining allowing for detailed analysis of cost estimates and provide dashboard views of the entire estimating enterprise. Additionally, users can query similar projects to quickly compare unit costs, resource utilization, etc. at the project, system or component level yielding invaluable, targeted information to greatly enhance estimate validity.
(EST.03) Avoid Cost Overrun for Mega Projects
Primary Author: Mr Himansu Bhaumik PE Duke Energy
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room Int'l B
Abstract: Cost overruns are becoming common occurrence for Mega Projects. Although some of the reasons for the overrun are outside project teams control, great many of them could be traced back to lack of details at early stages of project definition, budget estimates, FEED preparation and financial approval. Within the parameters of estimating the project cost, efforts are normally focused on process related so called hard cost issues, such as engineering, procurement, and direct construction costs. However many of the soft issues are not tackled in sufficient details, and as a result, these occasionally serve as the seed for subsequent cost growth. Some of these issues, for example, are design growth, start up and commissioning, financing costs including interest costs, insurance, land acquisition and social issues, construction indirect, logistics, and contingencies. This paper systematically traces these factors one by one and recommends ways to avoid such pitfalls.
(EST.04) Leveraging Cost History to Accurately Respond to Future Opportunities
Primary Author: Mr. Steve Watt WinEstimator Inc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45/Room Int'l B
Abstract: In this course the attendee will learn how valuable it is to be able to leverage your cost history for future opportunities. Too often large multi-office corporations have similar projects from office to office, but no way to leverage this information to use on future bids. This course will detail those struggles, discuss advantages of being able to leverage this information, and offer multiple solutions to respond to future opportunities.
This class will review using past cost history (including estimates and jobs) to create a defensible cost model. The ability to look at and use past estimates of similar scope for future bids could revolutionize the way large corporations respond to requests for bids. This course will detail how important an accurate cost model is, the challenges of using past information, and solutions for leveraging that information for future requests for bids.
(EST.10) New Rules of Measurement in the UK
Primary Author: Mr. Michael Byng mbpc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room Int'l B
Abstract: Bills of quantities have been in the UK for 200 years. Recent approaches to risk transfer, suggested their use was outdated. In the global financial crisis, the analytical measurement and valuation of building works is in demand to manage cost and risk at all stages of the project.
Using its extensive knowledge and experience, RICS has produced a suite of documents to create the New Rules of Measurement (NRM). A suite of documents covering all phases of a project from inception through procurement to running costs to the ultimate disposal of the asset.
The paper deals with the development of a system originated by the supply side, ascertaining the needs of modern day purchasers to create a Total Cost Management Process benefiting both purchaser and supplier throughout the project.
(EST.11) Organizational Considerations for Bidding and Pricing Work
Primary Author: Mr Eric Ryan Morrison CCT Todd Pacific Shipyards
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room Int'l B
Abstract: As organizations struggle to win and successfully execute work in todays competitive environment, it is imperative that all estimating team members understand their pricing strategies and the impacts to their organizations overall profitability. Organizational profitability isn't solely a derivative of a projects initial profit and loss statement rather, there are many considerations that should be taken into account when screening, bidding, and pricing new projects. When organizations evaluate potential projects and large changes, three key considerations should be:
- Organizational volumes and the impact to overhead and general and administrative cost pools.
- The organizational mix of contracts: fixed price and cost reimbursable.
- Incremental cash flows resulting from new or change work.
By understanding these considerations, it is possible for organizations to bid and price work more competitively, all while ensuring their projects continue to generate positive organizational cash flow.
(EST.12) Mathematical models of contingency for errors of omission
Primary Author: Dr Steve Davis University of New South Wales
Co-author(s): Yuan Peng University of New South Wales
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room Int'l B
Abstract: This paper presents mathematical models of contingency for errors of omission based on a variety of assumptions of probability distributions. These are compared to the traditional deterministic percentage method. Most authors accept errors of omission as an element of cost contingency. A general model/equation for determining contingency is presented and then specific models are formulated by selecting appropriate probability distributions for the size of cost items and functions for the probability of the occurrence of errors of omission. The results of parameter explorations of these models show a strong influence of the number of cost items used for dividing up the project and do not lend support to the traditional percentage method when the number of cost items is not very large. The paper is based on work in progress and the assumptions behind the models still need to be validated with real world data.
(EST.13) Nuclear Decommissioning Cost Estimate Lifecycle Management
Primary Author: Mr Mark Mills Research Sites Restoration Ltd.
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room Int'l B
Abstract: In programmes that are scheduled to last well beyond 50 years sometimes even 100 years, a way of maintaining estimates for projects that last for several years, but can start decades apart is required by those tasked with managing such programmes. This paper is a reflective study of the challenges faced by a nuclear decommissioning site in the UK managing a programme due for completion around 2060. It will document the first 12 months of a journey undertaken to formulate solutions to ensure that structure and process, introduced to manage the maintenance of the estimates, complies with regulatory requirements, and compliments the flexibility and creativity required to deliver strategy change and programme cost reduction. While the challenges encountered may be generic across the nuclear de-commissioning industry the solutions proposed and implemented are specifically for the site in the UK.
(EST.14) Modeling projects' scope for conceptual cost estimating
Primary Author: Mr Alfredo F Serpell Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room Int'l B
Abstract: The availability of complete scope definitions in early planning stages of construction projects is widely recognized by practitioners and researchers as a key factor for the quality of conceptual cost estimating. In this paper, a project scope modeling methodology is proposed based on the effective reutilization of historical project scopes and on the application of a case-based reasoning approach (CBR). The methodology helps to find and reuse the most relevant historical scope information, allowing consulting and combining information from multiple scope definitions in a computerized environment. The resulting project scope definition model serves then as a key input for conceptual cost estimating. For validation purposes, the proposed methodology was applied to conceptual cost estimating using historical data from real construction projects. The application of the methodology produced a detailed and accurate estimate of the cost of each project as well as detailed costs of its main components.
(EST.15) Estimating and Pre-Contracts Quantity Surveying
Primary Author: Mr Paratharajan Natarajan Pille Parsons International Ltd
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 2:30-3:30/Room Int'l B
Abstract: The important and delicate stage of any project is the Estimation stage and person responsible is the Quantity Surveyor in the Pre-Contracts Section. This stage needs a very good Quantity Surveyor having a wide range of experience with skills to manage the calculations with the available software and most importantly the historic data available in the organisation for using it as a base in Estimating.
The normal procedure in the pre-contracts estimating is preparing the estimate during the Preliminary Study, Preliminary Design, Final Design and Tender Design. For repetitive or similar projects, for which the organisation has good sound recent historic data, the difference between all the stage estimates shall be very less, provided there is no drastic change in the scope of the work. The Quantity Surveyor shall prepare and keep standard rates derived from historic data and keep as common. It is better that the person preparing the estimates, derives the standard rates himself, so that he is in knowledge of those items which are lumped into some unit rates or for those items whose cost to be separately calculated if possible, or just allow some percentage in the contingencies or any other line item. As the stage progresses the quantities and items becomes well defined and then only applying appropriate unit rates becomes a key factor.
But at each and every stage the Quantity Surveyor using any assumption shall keep records for any future justification of all the estimates even until the start of the project.
(EST.S01) Developing A Long-Term Historical Cost Database
Primary Author: Mr Scott Newell Wasley CEP Idaho National Lab
Co-author(s): Mr Joseph B Martin CCT Idaho National Laboratory; Mr. Robert Roy Honsinger CEP Battelle Energy Alliance; Mr Bruce William Wallace CEP Battelle Energy Alliance LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room Int'l B
Abstract: Description: Procedures, standards, and lessons learned to implement a long-term, maintainable cost estimating historical database.
Application: The paper specifically addresses a database that is populated with historical estimated cost data, but the information may also apply well to historical actual cost data. This information intended to be used during the development of a new database, but a specified subset of the recommendations may be applied to existing databases to increase the quality and usefulness of the output. The output generated from the database algorithms may be used by cost estimators, project managers, and cost engineers as a basis for rough order-of-magnitude project support costs.
Conclusions: Implementing clear and concise data input procedures is the primary effort toward minimizing the level of expertise needed to update the database. This addresses the specific problems of keeping a high quality cost database updated.
(EST.S02) Estimate Conversion to Historical Model
Primary Author: Mr. Robert J. Coppo Fluor Corporation
Co-author(s): Mr. Waymon D. Lofton Fluor
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room Int'l B
Abstract: The ultimate reuse of completed estimates and actual cost data is its conversion into an intelligent Class 5 model. This is important for being able to generate low budget estimates with the most accuracy and, also, to validate more detailed estimates. This presentation will demonstrate the principle guidelines on constructing a historical model. The two main concepts to be discussed are grouping by major cost drivers and developing a standard list of unit cost items. Then, the relationship between the unit cost items and major cost drivers is determined to provide intelligence in the model.
(EST.S03) Infrastructure Cost Planning - Information System for Cost Prediction
Primary Author: Mr. Christopher Hagmann University of Stuttgart
Co-author(s): Dr Christian Stoy University of Stutgart
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room Int'l B
Abstract: As in many industrialized countries, the population of Germany is constantly getting older and smaller nowadays. These demographic changes cause adaptations of technical and social infra-structure in both quality and quantity, to ensure their aspects of economy and usability at long term. Therefore, settlement development planning and municipal infrastructure planning have to work closely together. Decisions like expansion, renovation, redimensioning or even closing of municipal infrastructure should be based on long term strategies of settlement development, in order not to overbudget future remaining costs, and new projects have to be evaluated within their infra-structural running costs. A current research project together with the City of Stuttgart will enable the planning teams to systematically integrate the consequences of demographic changes in their infrastructural projects (supply quality, cost efficiency). As a first step, this study prepares the database of cost indicators and drivers for municipal infrastructural project cost estimation in early project phases.
(EST.S05) Using Equipment Costs to Estimate Total Conceptual Level Costs
Primary Author: Mr Desmond Orsinelli PE CEP Brown & Caldwell
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room Int'l B
Abstract: This paper will provide an overview and assessment of the Lang factor method of conceptual cost estimating. The Lang method provides a means to generate a rough overall cost of a project from only the price quotation on the process equipment and the estimator's or cost engineer's conceptual level knowledge of the scope. By combining a review of the literature with personal experience, this author will stress the importance of understanding the limitations and boundaries of this method. Several publications, beginning in the 1950s and continuing to the present, have provided data for selecting and adjusting published Lang factors. However, the caution is that it is too easy to generate inaccurate numbers if one does not know the underlying assumptions. Armed with knowledge of the published data's applicability, one can then decide whether to use it and how.
EARNED VALUE
MANAGEMENT (EVM)
(EVM.01) ECI: The Future of EVM in Defense Contracting?
Primary Author: Mr Michael R Nosbisch CCC PSP SM&A
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room M302
Abstract: In early 2009, the Defense Department announced that it would be dramatically realigning its acquisition strategy by shifting away from cost reimbursable to more fixed price contracts. Since then, much discussion within the federal-based project controls community has revolved around if and how earned value management (EVM) will be used in support of these new contracts. This presentation will examine some scenarios that are likely to unfold over the next few years in this regard, but will also focus on a current example of how the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has been striving to address this issue. Called Early Contractor Involvement (ECI), it integrates EVM with incentivized fixed price contracting on projects where the scope has not been sufficiently defined at the time of contract award
-- the result being a unique project delivery system that may ultimately become the model for the rest of the Defense contracting community.
(EVM.02) Implementing an EVMS/Cost Controls System for FAA's TAMR Program
Primary Author: Mr Mark Walden Federal Aviation Administration
Co-author(s): Mr Tom Brown EcoSys; Mr Rohit Iyer EcoSys
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room M302
Abstract: The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Terminal Automation Modernization and Replacement (TAMR) program is a capital program that employs a phased approach to modernizing the air traffic control systems used by controllers at the Nations major airports. The third phase of the Program involves the modernization or replacement of the automation systems at additional air traffic control facilities to support the increasing demand for air traffic services.
This paper describes the EVMS/cost controls system for the TAMR program that takes into account the unique challenges of managing a large federal program supporting critical national infrastructure, including:
- Managing costs throughout the entire lifecycle from funding to estimates to bids/proposals through delivery
- The ability to make program adjustments and take corrective action based on accurate and predictive cost performance data
- Adaptable Earned Value rules meeting different needs while adhering to ANSI 748 audit requirements
(EVM.03) EVM Perfromance Metrics - Simplifying the Benchmarking and Strategic Analysis of the Constructor
Primary Author: Mr Michael Debiak PSP, EVP Jacobs Engineering Group
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room M302
Abstract: There is a lot of talk in the industry about earned value management systems (EVMS), but these are complex solutions that apply mostly to government and defense projects with cost exposure for IDIQ or T&M type contracts. This presentation will demonstrate how you can apply eraned value techniques to lump sum projects to take hold of contractor perfromance metrics. Using even a limited amount of infromation about the 'project cost' meaningful and realistic benchmarking (baseline) data can be established, and SPI and CPI can be calculated. In addition, advanced schedule performance techniques such as BEI and CPLI will be presented in easy to understand terms.
(EVM.04) Mitigation and Performance Recovery Using Earned Value
Primary Author: Mr. John C. Potter PSP Alpha Corporation
Co-author(s): Mr Christopher W Carson PSP Alpha Corporation; Mr Patrick M. Kelly PSP Alpha Corporation
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45/Room M302
Abstract: This presentation discusses the practical use of Earned Value metrics and calculations in monitoring and controlling schedule slippage but more importantly in identifying appropriate mitigation plans to regain time. Earned Value Management can be used to identify the specific trades or scopes of work that are contributing to poor performance, and then used to fashion an appropriate isolated and detailed mitigation strategy to provide steps for the improved performance necessary to increase the project production rate enough to complete on time. This presentation provides an innovative look, from an Earned Value perspective, at schedule mitigation, crunching,and acceleration/recovery along with specific identification of lagging production problem areas in the schedule before those areas become responsible for late completion. The program illustrated will provide a process and graphical displays to define and promote more practical steps to aid mitigation than just reporting on EV metrics.
(EVM.S01) Monitoring Productivity with EVA
Primary Author: Mr Aldo Dorea Mattos Aldo Mattos Consulting
Co-Author: Mr. Ricardo Delarue JTM JV Dubai Metro
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room M302
Abstract: Labor has an undeniable effect on a construction project and
represents a major source of risk for the contractor. Better (or worse)
than expected productivity certainly causes a positive (or negative)
impact on the global schedule and cost, and thus must be properly
monitored and controlled. Measuring the efficiency of direct manpower is
a task ordinarily carried out by many contractors, but keeping records
of quantities of work performed and the corresponding man hours is not
enough. Some questions remain: (i) what is the overall efficiency of the
manpower? (ii) what is its impact on the project as a whole? (iii) what
is the trend of the labor production rates, and how does it affect the
originally estimated scenario? (iv) what actions must be taken to bring
the job to the desired standards? In this paper the authors present a
methodology for measuring and interpreting productivity and forecasting
future behavior by means of Earned Value Analysis.
OWNER ISSUES (OWN)
(OWN.01) Why Owners Do What They Do
Primary Author: Mr Bernard A Pietlock CCC CEP DuPont
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room M102
Abstract: Purpose of this paper is to share with Contractors the reasons why owners do what they do and how they might do it. There is a much greater gap in terminologies, practices and understandings between owners and contractors then we all would like to admit. We all tend to view the project world from our place in the process and have a tendency to ignore what is being practiced on the other side of that owner/contractor relationship. This paper hopefully will encourage contractors and other owners to engage in an on-going information exchange. A better understanding why some owners behave the way they do is my attempt to share and hopefully improve that owner/contractor communication that will eventually lead to improved effectiveness of project execution. A fictitious scenario will be used to walk through the processes of:
- what governs the owners capital spending
- how owners might select projects
- why capital management of all projects within an owners organization must be evergreen
- why the owners estimates and buckets for collecting expenditures are organized the way they are
- how some owners prefer to organize their estimates
- why owners are so committed to cost control
(OWN.02) Front-End Engineering and Development (FEED) Influence over a Project's Outcome
Primary Author: Mr James D Whiteside II PE ConocoPhillips
Co-author(s): Mr. Tyler Humes University of Texas
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room M102
Abstract: Project management needs to know how much of the total installed cost of a project is spent on front-end engineering and development (FEED) when developing a project in order to set a budget. The answer is normally expressed as a percent of the total installed cost (TIC) which is converted into a budget of engineering hours. Statistical percentages are acceptable for comparative purpose like benchmarking. Statistical percentages are not a substitute for estimating or establishing a budget of activities to be performed.
This study focuses on explaining FEED characteristics that achieve competitive projects. Duration and hours for engineering and project management activities are compared to predictability and performance metrics for cost and schedule. The study focuses on identifying the FEED characteristics that are common among competitive projects. Examining a slate of projects determined that project success is driven by the type of engineering performed in FEED.
(OWN.03) Timely Time Extensions: The Owner's Duty
Primary Author: Mr John P Orr PSP URS Corporation
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room M102
Abstract: Construction contracts specify that an owner will grant time extensions for excusable delays. Courts and contract appeal boards have added an implied obligation requiring the owner to grant time extensions in a timely manner. Failure to issue time extensions for excusable delays distorts CPM schedule update projections and may result in claims for constructive acceleration. It is a strong indication of potential scheduling disputes and subsequent litigation.
Despite the obligation to grant time extensions in a timely manner, owners frequently fail to do so, for various reasons. Lack of expertise in schedule time impact analysis, low confidence in the schedules accuracy, or a belief that the project will recover on its own (what Samuel Johnson called, the triumph of hope over experience) can prevent owners from addressing time extensions properly.
This paper will evaluate the reasons owners frequently fail to address time extensions in a timely manner, and provide guidance for the owners project management team.
(OWN.04) Stumbling Blocks in Implementing Project Controls Standards in Small to Midsize Owner
Primary Author: Mr. Subhash (P.Eng) Itagi PMP,RMP,SP PSP, CCE Williams Energy Canada Inc.
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45/Room M102
Abstract: Description of the paper: The analysis done in this paper is based on the common subject, where most of the project control personnel stumble, while developing, implementing and communicating Project Control standards and procedures in small to midsize owner organization, due to a lack of understanding of the principles of Project Controls and, often, project managers reluctance to learn and implement new processes to manage their projects.
Application: Even though the application of knowledge provided in the paper applies to overall project controls it particularly focuses on the areas of Progress management , Earned value management and Project Controls standard implementation & reporting by Contractors cost engineering.
Results, observations, and conclusions: The observation in this paper indicates commitment from management in Implementing Project Controls standards and educating project personnel, as-well-as effective communication will impact success rating of Implementing and following Project Control Standards to all project in small to medium Owner Organization, which are nave to project controls.
(OWN.05) Integrated Project Controls: An Owner's Perspective
Primary Author: Mr. David Andrew Lucas American Electric Power
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room M102
Abstract: American Electric Power (AEP) is currently engaged in one of the largest construction programs in the United States. From 2007-2012, AEP's project management organization is currently planning to manage over $7.5 billion in major projects.
Over the last three years, AEP has developed a project controls philosophy that effectively integrates cost tracking, schedule development and monitoring, cost forecasting, and project success metrics. AEP been able to implement this philosophy while working with hundreds of contractors, each of whom have their own internal requirements, and executing various types of projects and contract philosophies.
This paper examines the transformation that AEP has gone through over the past three years in developing our integrated project controls philosophy, an overview of AEP's current project controls processes and systems, and a vision of the owner / contractor relationship in managing to a common goal.
(OWN.06) Best Practices by Owners for Controlling Cost and Schedules on Large Projects
Primary Author: Ms Marlene M Hyde CCE EVP Hyde Consulting
Co-author(s): Mr John P Orr PSP URS Corporation; Mr Michael E Peek PE Parsons Brinckerhoff
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room M102
Abstract: Knowledgeable owners on large projects should implement best practices to ensure that good cost and schedule control are achieved. This will improve the potential for the project to be completed on schedule and within budget. Why does this go wrong so often and what are the consequences? What steps should the owner take during design and construction to make project success more likely? This paper will address best practices to:
- Create an integrated project controls system
- Develop an accurate cost estimate
- Establish a comprehensive project budget
- Develop an integrated schedule baseline
- Develop an effective risk management program
- Implement an earned value management system
- Conduct independent reviews and audits of cost, schedule and risks
- Reduce change orders and keep costs and schedule in control
(OWN.07) Addressing the Uncertainty Associated with Integrated Project Delivery
Primary Author: Mr John R Spittler PE Spittler Strategic Services LLC
Co-author(s): Mr Eric Nelson Smitm Currie & Hancock LLP
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room M102
Abstract: From the theoretical perspective, Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) is the ideal structure for delivering a commercial project in todays sustainable, technology driven environment. That being the case, why are there so few projects using it? The answer appears to be relatively simple: uncertainty. This includes uncertainty as to the responsibilities of the project participants, uncertainty as to the rights of the project participant, and uncertainty as to the risks that each of the project participant will shoulder and the rewards that each participant will receive if the project is successful. If these issues can be addressed adequately, then IPD has the potential of becoming more than a theoretical framework for developing, designing, and building a project. It becomes a viable option, with the potential of revolutionizing the industry. The authors recommend addressing seven (7) broad issue areas to reduce the uncertainty, including the nature of the owners organization and funding sources the flattening of the traditional organizational structure thereby reducing tiering and including key participants in decision-making and shared profit incentives. Key discussion subjects include: understanding how to collaborate (and communicate) and resolve conflict how to effectively use technology and BIM how to effectively use insurance and incentives understanding the changes required in the flow of design and information that must be available how this affects project planning and scheduling, budgeting, cost modeling, and establishing the price for construction and the related issues of LEED certification, commissioning, permitting and regulatory compliance.
(OWN.08) The Unexpected Cost of Contract Multiplier Calculation Methods
Primary Author: Mr. Jack Ortego PE Commercial Cost Control
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 11:00-12:00/Room M102
Abstract: Due to an often unrecognized ambiguity in most CM and GC GMP contracts, it has been found that multipliers (Overhead, Fee, Tax, Insurances, Bonds, etc.) are being calculated using 3 different methods as follows:
1st Method Total (Owner Preferred) Base Cost (1Multipliers)
2nd Method Total (CM/GC Preferred) Base Cost (1Multipliers)
3rd Method Total (Standard Practice) Base Cost (1Multiplier_1) (1Multiplier_2) etc.
Unfortunately, no standard contract and very few custom contracts define the exact method to use. In the absence of specific language, the CM/GCs are left to choose the method that they prefer. This paper will discuss the cost implications for each method. It will explore how insurance providers and local taxes affect which methods the CM/GCs choose. The paper will also provide suggested language to add clarity to the contracts with the intent of avoiding conflict at the end of the project.
(OWN.09) Developing and Implementing a Project Knowledge Management System (PKMS)
Primary Author: Ms Cristina Figueiredo P Eng Enbridge
Co-author(s): Mr Ray S Philipenko P Eng Enbridge Pipelines Inc
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room M102
Abstract: In todays competitive business environment it is critical for companies to develop, implement and maintain an effective institutional memory that will support the continuous improvement of the project life-cycle and the making of good business decisions. Empirical information is the most fundamental project planning resource available. With a corporate wide knowledge management system, the ability to more effectively support project development becomes possible. The knowledge system facilitates effective analysis, development and application of historical project performance information, including relevant metrics, during the development of company growth projects. Although vitally important, justification of time and resources to support the process of project data collection, cleaning and organization can be a significant challenge for many organizations. This paper will review the methodology that has been used by a pipeline company to develop and implement a Project Knowledge Management System. The project plan, required resources, and data collection process will be reviewed along with challenges and lessons learned.
(OWN.10) Fully-Automated Cash Flow Forecasting
Primary Author: Mr Paul Verveniotis PE Skire Inc.
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room M102
Abstract: The current economy has placed a higher importance and visibility to accurate cash flow forecasting. While Excel spreadsheets and manual updates have long been a common method of choice, other technical solutions allow automated updating of cash flow forecasts based on current actual expenditures on projects. Automatically re-forecasting a projects cash flow can be based on template curves and algorithms that have been predefined for the project type and other factors. However, there are cases where manual intervention is desirable and necessary. This paper examines the differences between public and private-sector projects, practices in different verticals, and the tolerance of these project teams to trust a system to automatically update forecast information.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT (PM)
(PM.01) Factors Affecting Subcontracting Strategies in Industrial Mega Projects
Primary Author: Ms Mahsa Taghi Zadeh University of Calgary
Co-author(s): Dr Janaka Y Ruwanpura University Of Calgary; Mr Farshid Gholami University of Calgary
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room M103
Abstract: Many projects, particularly in the energy sector, suffer from problems and ambiguities that exist in the buyout phase of projects and result in massive time and cost overruns. Establishing an appropriate subcontracting strategy in an industrial project is a multifaceted practice in which many factors are involved, yet the associated issues are seldom acknowledged. This study first investigates the relevant problems, and then identifies and analyzes the important factors influencing subcontracting strategies from a general contractors point of view. The analysis is based on two questionnaire surveys and interviews administered to 40 practitioners who were involved in seven Lump-Sum-Turn-Key projects in companies operating as general contractors in execution of large-scale hydro power plants. Twenty-seven problems associated with, and thirty-two factors affecting subcontracting practices have been identified, analyzed and rank-ordered based on their relative importance parameters. The study also provides guidelines and recommendations regarding actions that need to be taken by general contractors to effectively develop an appropriate subcontracting strategy, enhance existing practices, and accordingly curtail the relevant time and cost overruns.
(PM.02) Forecasting Construction Project Performance Using Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach
Primary Author: Mr. Mohammad Ilbeigi
Co-author(s): Dr Gholamreza Heravi University of Tehran
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room M103
Abstract: Performance management is one of the most critical tasks carried out by construction organizations. This paper describes a model to forecast the project performance at completion and at any other interim future point. The model is based on eleven performance indices in two categories, product performance indices such as profitability, product quality and client satisfaction, and project management performance indices such as cost, schedule, safety, process quality and billing. Forecasting is carried out for each index individually on the basis of the current situation of the project and the performance of past projects of the organization, using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. By analyzing the results of the introduced model and comparing with actual data from a major infrastructure project, the performance and accuracy of the model was evaluated. Furthermore, the correlations between the different indices were determined and evaluated to further validate the results.
(PM.03) Cost Impact of Constructaility Analysis in Mega Projects
Primary Author: Mr Farshid Gholami University of Calgary
Co-author(s): Dr Janaka Y Ruwanpura University Of Calgary; Ms Mahsa Taghi Zadeh University of Calgary
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room M103
Abstract: The lack of constructability analysis has caused problems such as increased construction cost, and reduced productivity of project manpower and equipment in construction industry. Because of the complexity of projects and the fragmentation of the construction field into specialized roles and expertise, the construction industry has a great need that constructability analysis be performed at design stage and implemented in construction. This need is salient especially in huge industrial mega projects.
This paper presents a case study to investigate the extent of constructability analysis practiced in a selected mega project in the field of oil and gas, and how its ignorance affected the construction cost and productivity. Interviews were conducted with different parties and authorities of the project, including owner, consultants, and contractors. Four main constructability components were determined project delivery approach, constructability tools, designers' approach to constructability, and constructability constraints. The major constructability items for each component were determined and their impacts on project cost and time were tabulated on a low-medium-high rank basis, based on interview results.
(PM.04) Top 10 Mistakes Made in Project Negotiations
Primary Author: Mr Joseph Arthur Lukas PE CCE PMCentersUSA
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45/Room M103
Abstract: Do you have clients that ask for minor extras at no additional cost, or argue about the additional cost and/or time for project changes? Do you have internal disagreements regarding estimates and schedules? You need to be an effective negotiator to handle these situations. Unfortunately, most cost/schedule professionals, estimators and project managers come up short in interpersonal skills such as negotiating. This talk will present the David Letterman list of the top ten mistakes made in conducting project negotiations, along with techniques that can be utilized to avoid these mistakes. The talk will then describe a recommended procedure to follow when preparing for a negotiation. This talk should be of interest to project personnel looking for pointers on how to be more effective in negotiation situations. If you think youre a skilled negotiator, come to this session to see if you are making any of the 10 most common negotiation errors. You may be surprised!
(PM.05) Los Angeles $40 Billion Transportation Program Using P6
Primary Author: Ms Julie K Owen CCC PSP Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority
Co-author(s): Mr. Brian Criss D.R. McNatty & Associates, Inc.
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room M103
Abstract: Los Angeles is famous for traffic and long commutes but the citizens decided to do something about it at the ballot box. In November 2008, residents of Los Angeles County voted to approve Measure R which commits a projected $40 billion into traffic relief and transportation upgrades over the next thirty years. The program will fund critical rail system expansion, highway projects, traffic reduction and local street improvements. The Measure R program is the largest investment in Los Angeles County transportation infrastructure since the late 1980s and will provide up to 210,000 new construction jobs and boost the local economy.
Because of the program size and accountability to the public, MTA decided to implement Primavera P6 and P6 web for enterprise program management. This paper describes the enterprise system implementation and system upgrade methodology from P3 to P6. Challenges, successes, and lessons learned encountered during implementation will be discussed.
(PM.06) Recovering a Troubled
Telecommunications Project
Primary Author: Mr Thomas Bean Fluor Enterprises Inc.
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room M103
Abstract: This paper presents the actual case of implementing needed
improvements to work processes on a troubled wireless telecommunications
project to recover lagging progress and the delayed project completion
date. The project was a build-out of 350 cell-sites in multiple city
markets involving severe constraints on skilled resources. The
cell-sites were being constructed simultaneously in parallel according
to the fast-track schedule.
The project duration was only ten months, and after only a few months
following contract award the rate of actual progress was trending behind
the planned progress. A schedule extension was imminent which would have
delayed network turn-up and the owner's revenue operating date. Given
the limitations on resources, project management looked for alternative
solutions to improve timely completion and delivery of the wireless
network. A team of project management specialists was brought onto the
job to assist and conduct an in-depth analysis of the problem. This
paper addresses the final recommendations for optimizing resources and
making improvements to work processes, procedures, and project controls
reporting.
(PM.07) Enterprise Project/Cost Management Systems Implementation -- Lessons Learned
Primary Author: Mr Anthony Jerome Morris Jacobs Engineering Group
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room M103
Abstract: Analyzes lessons learned from the authors experience participating in four enterprise project management/cost management system implementations over the past ten years for large public agencies engaged in capital project delivery. The focus is on the non-technical or soft issues that often determine the success or failure of a project. Identifies approximately one dozen key areas/issues along with relevant characteristics, potential impacts on project success (based on authors experience) and specific examples of how they were addressed on the subject projects. Results may be used in planning, designing and implementing similar enterprise systems to maximize project success with regard to scope, schedule, budget and client satisfaction. The results of this analysis show that there are key success factors that, although not easily quantifiable, contribute greatly to project success and all of these factors can be considered and/or implemented early in the project where they can provide the greatest overall benefit.
(PM.08) Expanded Facility Condition Assessment Becomes Strategic Facility Consulting
Primary Author: Mr Michael D Dell'Isola PE FaithfulGould
Co-author(s): Mr. Benjamin Dutton FaithfulGould
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room M103
Abstract: Expanded Facility Condition Assessment (or what we refer to as Strategic Facility Consulting) evaluates the scope of various capital renewal, deferred maintenance, facility/plant adaptation and maintenance projects. This paper will demonstrate how to quantify and analyze system renewal costs, implement capital planning processes, collaborate on planning/budgeting decisions using standardized data and process, and compare lifecycle capital requirements to funding sources and levels. In addition, it will provide strategies for identifying funding risks and opportunities, managing funding sources, and implementing and approach to periodic condition assessments. Strategic Facility Consulting allows organizations, both public and private, to structure their initiatives directly in line with operational goals. The approach drives informed, sustainable business decisions by creating knowledge through the capture, management and analysis of raw property and operating data.
(PM.09) Integrated project teams with multi office execution, A Study of EPC Project/s in Canada
Primary Author: Dr Pattita Brandell Bantrel
Co-author(s): Mr Tanveer Nabi Ahmed CCE Bantrel; Dr Janaka Y Ruwanpura University Of Calgary
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room M103
Abstract: Engineering procurement and construction (EPC) projects in Canadian oil sands have gained significant economic importance due to rising hydrocarbon commodity price. The oil and gas industry in Alberta has planned to spend over 150 billion dollars within the next two decades on capital projects. Alberta has recognized the shortage of human resource to execute mega capital projects.
Multi office execution is a way forward for all the major EPC houses in Canada to sustain the demands of Clients within budget and on-time.
Further, it has been identified by the industry needs that integrated project teams are critical to the success of these complex projects. In this environment, project management techniques need to be adapted to match project complexity. This paper will provide much insight through case study into hard and soft issues related to project teams in multi office execution, and further discusses the existing literature body of knowledge and compares them with industry practices. Recommendations are made based on the analysis.
(PM.10) Integrated Project Management System: Dynamic EPC Execution Strategies
Primary Author: Mr Mikhail Alfy Hanna SNC Lavalin
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 2:30-3:30/Room M103
Abstract: The crises in todays project management execution strategy can be illustrated through the deterioration of the three performance indicators of a project executing agreed scope within budget and schedule with a defined quality standard. Increasing execution risks impact owners and contractors cost structure negatively. Majority of project overrun suffer lack of successful execution strategy and pre-planning.
Within the Oil & Gas industry, procurement can account for up to 40% of the Total Installed Cost (TIC) of a project. Depending on the type of project and the equipment/material to be procured, a significant amount of the procurement value must be committed during the early phases of engineering where there is a significant amount of risk due to the lack of a complete design. Delays in the acquisition of procurement items will severely impact the execution of the construction sequence of the project which will inevitably impact the primary Key Performance Indicators of the project.
PLANNING AND SCHEDULING (PS)
(PS.01) Schedule Quality Assurance Procedures
Primary Author: Mr Andrew Avalon PE PSP Long International, Inc.
Co-author(s): Mr. Curtis W. Foster Long International
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room M106
Abstract: Many project schedules are often poorly prepared and require extensive rebaselining during project execution to become a useful project management tool to properly measure progress, determine the effect of changes in scope, and forecast the completion of contractual milestones and overall project completion dates. Poorly prepared schedules do not provide a reliable tool to measure the amount and responsibility for delays that occur during project execution to provide a basis for a time extension or to assess the need for acceleration to mitigate delays. This paper discusses procedures to rectify these common problems with project schedules, including: ensuring that the schedule accurately reflects the complete contractual scope of work, evaluating schedule metrics to assess the schedule integrity, reviewing the schedule logic for reasonableness, evaluating the reasonableness and completeness of the critical path, and comparing the schedule to the baseline or previous updates to identify significant changes.
(PS.02) LOB Scheduling Application to a Particular Operation Within a Large-Scale Project
Primary Author: Mr Ghulam Mujtaba Shaikh Jacobs Engineering
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room M106
Abstract: The Line-of-Balance (LOB) scheduling method has traditionally been used for projects with activities of repetitive nature, and therefore has been mostly limited to use in building projects. LOB scheduling method is still not in practice in a large-scale infrastructure or transportation project, where traditional Critical Path Method (CPM) scheduling method continues to be used to plan and manage. Research has shown that LOB scheduling method has various intrinsic advantages, and offers solutions to many scheduling related problems, relative to the CPM Scheduling method. In this paper, it is shown how a particular operation or set of activities within a transportation project can be schedule by LOB. An actual bridge project has been taken as case study and LOB is applied to the CIDH Pile ad Column Operations in order to improve the productivity and efficiency.
(PS.03) Project Controls and Planning of ATP During Acceleration Period
Primary Author: Mr. Kayhan Sen Enka Construction & Industry Co. Ltd.
Co-author(s): Dr. Fulya Inal Enka Construction & Industry Co. Inc.
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room M106
Abstract: During global economical crisis, Romanian Government wanted to utilize its limited funds in most efficient way. So, Autostrada Transilvania Project which is the biggest infrastructure project in Europe was chosen, regarding the reason that almost all the investment directly go to the citizens of the country, since all the resources needed for motorway construction are provided locally. At the beginning of 2009, Client requested Contractor to accelerate and open 42 km section in length to the traffic. So, the contractor revised its schedule and its resources in order to meet Clients objective. Moreover, the existing project control methodologies were modified in order to achieve the time shortening without compromising the safety, efficiency and quality of the works. This paper will address the methodologies providing successful interaction and monitoring in between the all operational levels of the contractor in the acceleration period mentioned above.
(PS.05) Rapid Recovery from Schedule Slippage (RRSS)
Primary Author: Dr Faramarz Fred Rahbar Saudi Aramco
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 5:00-6:00/Room M106
Abstract: Today's competitive market mandates dramatic reduction in project cycle time to cope with demand for high performance. Very few systematic decision tools exist to assist in choosing project strategies that reduce the project cycle time or recover from schedule slippages throughout the project life cycles.
This paper highlights controls techniques based on actual data to help the participants identify the root cause of the problems, analyze the potential solutions, and select the solution that will rescue the project to recovery. The paper is reflective of best practices and proven techniques that resulted in greater than 25% reduction or recovery on the overall project cycle time. Topics presented includes: Understanding and troubleshooting projects early warning signs, best use of KPIs and Metrics, gaining control over scope creeps, identifying and actively mitigating project risks, developing and managing a project recovery plan.
(PS.06) Order-Of-Magnitude Scheduling
Primary Author: Mr Timothy T Calvey PE PSP Calvey Consulting, LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room M106
Abstract: Would You Prefer a Planned Project Duration or a We Can Do That?
Pity the poor Planner even Cost Estimators get breaks that are denied to him. When a client is considering building a new factory, he contacts an A&E firm to develop a scope and order of magnitude estimate. The estimators develop their pricing based on metrics of cubic yards of concrete, square foot of building, type of roofing, and lineal feet of piping and kilowatts of electricity. The estimator uses all-in unit pricing to develop the budget estimate.
On the other hand, quite often the schedule for the project is determined by the when do you need it philosophy. Surely there is a better way. This presentation will look at planning metrics for determining interim milestone dates, summary durations and project completion dates.
(PS.07) Essentials of early planning for Mega Projects
Primary Author: Mr Himansu Bhaumik PE Duke Energy
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room M106
Abstract: Usually during the feasibility study stage of Mega projects, a summary level project plan is developed from the strategic point of view to meet completion goals of the Owner. More than often all logistic issues including the back end commissioning process are not considered in adequate details. This, sometimes, leads to an over ambitious project schedule included in the project approval documentation. During the project execution phase when the real life situations expose the project to various schedule risks that were not fully analyzed during the early stages, it often leads to delays. Subsequent recovery, when feasible, usually is associated with an increase in the project cost. This paper systematically discussed the important elements of early planning process and suggests the recommended check list of items that ought to be considered while developing the first level of project schedule.
(PS.08) Planning A Complex Project -- An Under Appreciated Effort
Primary Author: Mr Christopher W Carson PSP Alpha Corporation
Co-author(s): Mr Glen R Palmer PSP CFCC GR Palmer Consulting Services
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 11:00-12:00/Room M106
Abstract: Planning a complex project is one of the most under appreciated efforts in the construction industry today. Further, based on the authors experiences in the dispute resolution industry, it is often a poorly executed element of a project that leads to huge cost and time overruns due to claims. One of the main reasons for this is that many organizations do not understand the true value of a well devised plan and consequently do not spend the effort required to develop a good plan.
The authors of this paper are widely experienced in planning and will share their ideas on how to plan a complex project. Additionally, they will discuss the ideas of other noted authors on their planning techniques, giving the reader varied approaches on planning.
This paper will also incorporate examples of real project experience on planning and re-planning projects, along with checklists for the planning process.
(PS.09) Linear Scheduling for Production Home Building
Primary Author: Ms. Carla Lopez del Puerto CCC Southern Illinois University
Co-author(s): Dr Douglas D Gransberg PE CCE University Of Oklahoma
Subject Level: Basic
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room M106
Abstract: Linear scheduling has been in use for several decades in the heavy civil construction industry. The critical path method (CPM) is the most widely used scheduling method in commercial and residential construction. The CPM depicts relationships between activities, but it cannot alert the cost estimator/ scheduler of space constraints that can negatively impact the projects productivity. Linear scheduling represents both time and space graphically in the same chart. This allows the scheduler/ cost estimator to visually deconflict production activities on the project space representation. Due to the repetitive nature of production home building, linear scheduling is a good tool to avoid space conflicts that negatively impact production-based activities that drive the projects profitability. The process of preparing a linear schedule is best explained by walking the reader through an example problem. This paper uses a typical example to illustrate how linear scheduling can be used in production home building.
(PS.10) Thinking Enterprise with P6
Primary Author: Mr Faik Burak Evrenosoglu CCE PSP Fluor
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room M106
Abstract: Since the early 80s, Primavera Project Manager (P3) scheduling
software has been used by schedulers, project managers and claims
consultants. In 1999, Primavera introduced an entirely new scheduling
software designed for enterprise-wide project management, currently
called P6.
Many still perceive P6 as an upgrade of P3 and assume that P3 experts
should be able master P6 without difficulty. This incorrect assumption
creates the potential for confusion and a steep learning curve. For P3
users converting to an enterprise-wide environment is a major shift in
scheduling practices. Multiple users, central database, enterprise-wide
calendars, codes, layouts and reports are a great benefit to the
schedulers as long as the enterprise-wide schedules are carefully
planned, executed and administered.
This paper addresses the enterprise features of P6 and is aimed at
helping a manager or a scheduler charged with implementing P6.
(PS.11) P6 Lessons Learned -- Schedule Developmentt
Primary Author: Ms Hannah E Schumacher PSP Kitchell Contractors
Co-author(s): Mr Charlie Jackson PCI Group - Hill International
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 4:45-5:45/Room M106
Abstract: This paper will focus on lessons learned regarding the use of Primavera P6 software for the Total Cost Management (TCM 7.2) project planning and schedule development. The authors will highlight key differences between P3 and P6 and offer tips and guidelines for developing schedules in P6.
(PS.12) Phantom Float - Caveat Emptor
Primary Author: Dr Gui Ponce de Leon PMA Consultants LLC
Co-author(s): Mr John M Zann PE PSP PMA Consultants LLC
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room M106
Abstract: Is a CPM (critical path method) schedule inherently defective if it is recalculated based on resource limits, but not modified to include software-generated dependencies? Some researches posit that phantom float originates if the resource-constrained scheduling (RCS) backward pass does not add to the network RCS dependencies inferable from the RCS run. This paper is critical of software-generated logic and opposes substituting resource-constrained float for conventional float. It is further posited that adoption of phantom float theories is laden with perils clouding network logic with software-generated restraints, technological float sequestration and a weapon to bias delays. With all due respect to those engaged in this discourse, phantom float and RCS dependencies are impractical, unbalanced solutions to a phantom problem.
(PS.13) Managing Schedule Contingency
Primary Author: Mr Edward E Douglas III CCC PSP ACTPMA LLC Consulting
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room M106
Abstract: There are a wide range of opinions regarding guidelines for proper schedule contingency management. After the schedule risk analysis and duration reviews have been accomplished there are several methods for establishing contingency time in the project schedule. Some practitioners advocate spreading schedule contingency equally across the project some say that it should be concentrated on the projects critical activities or along the critical path others say to focus on those activities that are most vulnerable as risk-critical work, while others suggest that schedule contingency is merely a pot of time that can be used or drawn down at any point in the project. These contingency management methods will be compared and discussed along with their relationship to the establishment and use of the projects cost contingency. This presentation will discuss the general guidelines and requirements for establishing and managing schedule contingency as part of the overall project risk management process.
(PS.14) (Panel Discussion) The Great Debate: "Should Schedule Revisions Require Owner Approval?"
Primary Author: Mr Christopher W Carson PSP Alpha Corporation
Co-author(s): Mr Mark C Sanders PE CCE PSP Alpha3 Consulting LLC;
Mr John James Stauffer PSP Actus Lend Lease; Mr. John C. Potter PSP Alpha Corporation
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room M106
Abstract: Come hear a spirited debate between the Contractor position for freely making changes to the schedule to keep it as a good model for analysis and prediction ("It's My Schedule And I'll Change If I Want To") and the Owner position for maintaining absolute control over any added activities or logic to the schedule so they understand how the schedule is changing ("Whats Goin On?").
Listen to the many variations of these issues as the two teams argue over what constitutes a revision, when logic revisions become manipulation, and what approval rights an Owner should retain during schedule updates.
Four experienced schedulers, with four strong opinions, and four loud voices what more could you ask? Listen, offer your opinions, and vote on the best team with the most convincing (or loudest?) arguments!
(PS.15) Rectification of CPM Schedules
Primary Author: Mr. Ronald M Winter PSP Ron Winter Consulting LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 2:30-3:30/Room M106
Abstract: The process of correcting or rectifying CPM schedules before proceeding with analysis is an integral part of modern, post-project forensic analysis for construction projects. While this subject has been treated too casually by most forensic experts, it has been essentially ignored by schedulers while the job is in-progress.
This paper looks at schedule rectification from a Reviewing Schedulers viewpoint and not that of a Claims Consultant. Instead of waiting for the project to be complete before performing this process, we should consider training Project Schedulers to also consider rectifying CPM schedule updates as they are submitted. We will discuss justifications, guidelines, and some specific examples of rectification techniques that can be employed by Project Schedulers.
DECISION AND RISK MANAGEMENT (RISK)
(RISK.01) Alternate Method For Integrated Cost & Schedule Contingency Estimating
Primary Author: Mr John K Hollmann PE CCE CEP Validation Estimating, LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-11:00/Room M104
Abstract: Schedule contingency estimating is not widely used in project planning. Even less commonly used are methods that integrate cost and schedule. Only one integrated method is well covered in the literature i.e., simulation applied to a resource-loaded CPM schedule. This method has serious shortcomings for contingency estimating. In particular, when a risk event occurs, the teams response is often to modify the schedule logici.e., a static network model does not represent reality in consideration of risk. This paper presents the established CPM model-based method, as well as an alternate expected-value method used by the author that does not rely on the CPM model, static or otherwise. Pros and cons of the alternate methods are discussed. In addition to describing the alternate methods, this paper explains why cost and schedule risk analysis and contingency estimating must be done at the same time.
(RISK.02) Handling the Truth in Risk Management
Primary Author: Mr. Kevin M Curran Decision Sciences Corp
Co-author(s): Mr. Michael W Curran Decision Sciences Corp
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 11:15-12:15/Room M104
Abstract: This paper covers the psychological stages (fear, simplification, denial, anger, and acceptance) facing decision makers and risk analysts when implementing a quantitative risk management process. Discussion of these stages is supported by case examples. Knowledge of these stages is essential for the successful implementation of a quantitative risk management process and provides those implementing such processes the ability to more effectively communicate with and lead decision makers.
(RISK.03) Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis and Prioritizing Risks
Primary Author: Dr David T. Hulett Hulett & Associates, LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00/Room M104
Abstract: This presentation discusses how cost and schedule risk analysis are integrated because cost risk may be affected by schedule risk, e.g., fabrication may take longer and thus cost more.
The elements of the presentation are:
Integrate schedule and cost risk by using a resource-loaded schedule and conducting Monte Carlo simulation of both cost and schedule together. New outputs include a scatter-diagram of cost-schedule results and a probabilistic look at monthly cash flow;
Use of the Risk Driver that starts with individual risks from the Risk Register and characterizes them by their probability, impact range and the activities they affect;
Assign the risks to activities and costs as appropriate;
Prioritize the effect of specific risks on the need for contingency reserves of time and of money; Use of the prioritized risk list to study risk mitigation measures.
(RISK.04) Systemic Risk Management Using Lean Construction Methods
Primary Author: Mr Robert F Wells CEP CH2M Hill
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45/Room M104
Abstract: Systemic risks include uncertainties that are artifacts of a project system or culture. Lean Project Delivery is the application of lean business methods to engineering, procuring and construction operations. One Lean Project Delivery method used for construction operations is the Last Planner System(TM). Under the Last Planner System, the construction project system and culture are refocused on risk-contributory metrics, such as work flow reliability and readiness, rather than primarily on a cost-budget performance metric, such as Earned Value. The Last Planner System requires the examination and correction of planning failures. The resulting improved planning supports the achievement of promised commitments by reducing the exposure of systemic risks within construction operations. Included in this paper are a case study review, and a simulation of expected results. The reader will better understand the essential changes in the project systems and culture under the Last Planner System, as well as its effect on systemic risks.
(RISK.05) Risk Indentification and Response for Construction Middle East
Primary Author: Mr Mohamed Hendy
Co-author(s): Mr. Mohamed Talat; Mr. Mohamed Elnajaar
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-9:00/Room M104
Abstract: All projects are subject to risk. The world is in a state of constant change
and survival relies on the ability to adapt to changes. Unfortunately, many project managers have not yet realized that there is a need to include project risk as a key process. It is a well known fact that managing risk has two major objectives: to avoid the downside risks and to exploit opportunities. Experiences so far show that the risk avoidance part of the risk management philosophy has attracted too much management attention, while the potential opportunities have been neglected.
This paper presents a methodology that addresses the risk identification, response methods and strategies of risk responses for construction industry in the Middle East. The investigation, via a questionnaire survey, tries to identify the most common risks that face the contractors working in construction industry in the Middle East and their effectively risk response measures.
According to the collected data and its analyzed results, a spreadsheet file summarize the findings of this research and it can help contractors in their preparation of effective risk management process for new projects.
(RISK.06) Steel Fabrication Costs in China: Myth versus Reality
Primary Author: Mr Stephen O'Neill Hatch Mott MacDonald
Co-author(s): Mrs Limor Rozmarin URS Corporation
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 9:45-10:45/Room M104
Abstract: As its economy develops, China is moving from the manufacturing of small consumer goods into larger, sophisticated products such as fabricated structural steel. Contractors bidding on fixed-price contracts rely on lower quotes for Chinese steel products. However, our case study shows that the true cost of steel fabrication in China is not significantly different from the United States, and owners may find themselves paying higher prices than expected for change orders. A Monte Carlo model was developed to forecast the cost of steel fabrication for a signature bridge, to compensate the fabricator and allow the projects management to assess acceleration alternatives. It takes into account current Chinese labor laws, local benefits, work schedules, and skill mixes of foreign and Chinese workers necessary to meet American quality standards. Cost professionals can adapt the model to assess the cost difference between U.S and Chinese-based steel fabrication and to make informed purchasing decisions.
(RISK.07) Understanding Dampening in Cost Risk Models
Primary Author: Mr Christopher P Caddell PE PMA Consultants, LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 11:00-12:00/Room M104
Abstract: In the performance of a probabilistic cost analysis, more commonly known as a cost risk analysis, the phenomena of dampening was recognized decades ago by Michael Curren as detrimental to providing realistic results for project cost variability. Dampening is the resulting impact of having so many independent variables in a cost risk model that the variables have an increasing tendency to cancel each other out in a Monte Carlo simulation and the overall results are dampened in that the overall range is smaller than it would be if fewer variables had been included in the model. This paper provides a detailed explanation of how the dampening phenomenon works and demonstrates how it can impact the results of a cost risk analysis. It also discusses how to deal with this issue while still providing a comprehensive cost risk analysis.
(RISK.08) Understanding Merge Bias in Schedule Risk Analysis
Primary Author: Mr. Jeffrey Valdahl PMA Consultants LLC
Co-author(s): Mr Christopher P Caddell PE PMA Consultants, LLC
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-2:45/Room M104
Abstract: In the performance of a probabilistic schedule analysis, more commonly known as a schedule risk analysis, the phenomena of merge bias impacts most project results. However, this impact is typically poorly understood by project teams and management, who the analysis is intended to benefit. Merge bias is mentioned in numerous papers and books, but with limited details on how it works and how the impact can be quantified. Simply put, merge bias is the impact of having two or more parallel paths of activities, each with its own variability, merge into one milestone. This paper provides a detailed discussion about how merge bias works and demonstrates the impact through two different scenarios: 1) an increasing number of parallel paths, and 2) two parallel paths with varying degrees of duration variability overlap. It also discusses how to consider and address merge bias in the construction of a schedule risk model.
(RISK.09) Capital Projects Risk Development and Management
Primary Author: Mr Abhijnan Datta Parsons Brinckerhoff
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 3:30-4:30/Room M104
Abstract: Risk management involves risk identification, risk analysis and risk response. The contingency in the time and cost estimate is one of the ways of managing this risk. In many cases cost estimates are based on information given by engineering design. The estimator or his team understands the scope and collects as much details as possible. There is an in depth review to find out the cost of these detailed elements. There are assumptions made on a number of factors that influence cost. However in every project, the design at an early stage undergoes modifications and the possible impact of these modifications or deviations are rarely considered while building up a single point estimate. There are a number of other uncertainties that have a potential to affect productivity, project schedule, labour rates, commodity prices among others. Project schedule risks also affect contingency. In general, less float in the schedule activities contribute to a higher risk of cost overrun. In a number of cases, the provision for these uncertainties is taken care of by adding a percentage of costs as contingency to the estimate. This amount added is entirely on the judgment used by the lead estimator and on his previous experiences. This leads to inadequate contingency estimation in many cases. This paper discusses two distinct approaches towards risk development and management from the process of estimating for the project to the project completion and then goes on to compare the two approaches in terms of their advantages and limitations.
(RISK.11) Schedule Risk Management for Pipeline Projects
Primary Author: Ms Renna Alqasrani Enbridge Pipelines Inc.
Co-author(s): Mr Brent Kitson P Eng Enbridge Pipelines Inc; Mr Richa Sahib Enbridge Pipeline Co
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-9:00/Room M104
Abstract: Pipelines are used for the efficient, cost effective and safe transportation of fluids. Pipeline infrastructure includes Pipeline, pump stations, terminals, Tanks and associated control, instrumentation and maintenance equipment. The Project Lifecycle for major pipeline project consists of business scope identification, project development, business approval, project execution, commissioning and start up. Schedule management of pipeline project lifecycle activities is critical to meet milestones and control costs. Without adequate schedule management the impact of schedule risk will not be identified or mitigated and will result in missed milestones and significant increased costs. This paper will discuss the schedule issues related to pipeline projects and processes and tools used for pipeline project schedule risk management. Schedule risk management includes the development and maintenance of the master schedule, ongoing identification and assessment of schedule risks and the implementation of mitigation strategies. Schedule Risks can be either systemic or project specific. Tools and processes can be utilized to identify and assess schedule risks to develop a probabilistic outcome. The relationship between schedule and cost must be considered in the analysis.
(RISK.12) PRI (Performance Risk Index) Analysis: Doing the Basics Right
Primary Author: Mr. Michael J. Smith VECO Alaska Inc
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 9:45-10:45/Room M104
Abstract: In this session, learn to utilize Oracle's Primavera solutions to create a project risk indicator (PRI) model for your project. This risk model challenges key stakeholders to make proactive decisions to help mitigate each risk type and additionally categorizes each individual risk factor and calculates an overall trending completion date. The PRI model comprises two separate pieces, a Quick View summary sheet and a Narrative sheet, to show how each specific risk factor will be addressed. The session includes a historical presentation on the PRI, showing a scope changing from Extreme High Risk Factor to Very Low Risk Factor. If the PRI cannot be produced, then your project likely does not know some fundamental key risk information.
(RISK.14) Effect of Escalation on Large Construction Programs
Primary Author: Dr Ali Touran PE Northeastern University
Co-author(s): Mr. Payam Bakhshi Northeastern University
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-2:15/Room M104
Abstract: During the past twenty years, much effort has been made to control cost and schedule uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. The goal is not to eliminate the uncertainties but, how to deal with them in order to have an established contingency budget that is as close as possible to what the project will need. This is more important when a planner is confronted with a major program, i.e., a portfolio of construction projects. In this paper, we introduce a new technique in modeling cost, schedule, and escalation uncertainties, using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The effect of these uncertainties on a large infrastructure program is illustrated. The total cost variance is decomposed into variances caused by risk factors, duration, and escalation factor variations. This paper could be used as a practical guideline for agencies and planners challenged with such projects to establish the contingency budget to prevent shortfall of funds.
(RISK.15) A Risk Visualizing Method by Object-oriented Model
Primary Author: Dr Jae-Seob Lee Dongguk University
Co-Author: Woo-Ram Kim Dongguk University
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 2:30-3:30/Room M104
Abstract: Construction work is a risky undertaking, and risk management is essential in dealing with potential exposures. One of the possible options in any risk management approach is to identify and measure potential risks of construction activities. However, it is also necessary to visualize the risks for all parties involved to communicate and control them efficiently. This paper offers the risk visualizing method by object-oriented model for reinforced concrete construction. The method uses WBS(Work Breakdown Structure) and RBS(Risk Breakdown Structure) to develop a risk management process model. Each risk factor's weight is estimated from AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and Fuzzy Integral. The degree of risk factors for each building element is calculated from object-oriented model. The model applies risk factor's weight and risk's degree of each element to make the process objective, quantitative, consistent, and reliable. Through this process, the risk of each element is visualized by the object-oriented modeling tool.
(RISK.S02) Risk Assessment & Quantification for Technology Projects
Primary Author: Mr Amit Kumar
Subject Level: Advanced
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 4:45-5:45/Room M104
Abstract:
Paper presents a practical methodology for identifying and estimating risks involved in technology projects and for quantifying contingency in dollar value. Paper is based on analysis of 50 projects. Paper presents a spectrum of risk factors affecting a technology project based on internal research and experience of an insurance company.
Application: The methodology can be applied by companies who invest in in-house technology projects to support their core business. The methodology can be used to identify potential risks for such an investment, estimate risk score for risk communication and management and quantify risk into a dollar value to enhance project cost estimation accuracy.
Results: Results include a risk assessment and quantification tool that has been successfully implemented in a insurance company for all its technology projects. Substantial improvement has been observed in risk identification, communication and management. Substantial consistency observed in adding quantified risk to project cost estimation.
(RISK.S03) Why Is Risk So Hard To Communicate?
Primary Author: Mr Finn H. Sandberg Reftest
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 1 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 11:00-12:00/Room M104
Abstract: For most large mega-projects risk register and mitigation
plans are developed by the project management to try to avoid or
minimize unwanted delays and extended costs. These plans are presented
to the top management to make sure the most important stakeholders (the
ones paying for the project) are aware of the risk and the necessary
actions to be introduced. Most of the time we experience that the
comments made from "the top" are irrelevant (to our ears) or non
existent. This should be a danger signal, but often it is considered as
a "go ahead" and live happily ever after. The paper will address the
true story and discuss why things often ends up as a competition about
who's to blame..
SKILLS AND KNOWLEDGE OF COST ENGINEERING (SK)
(SK.01) Skills & Knowledge: Written and Oral Communication
Primary Author: Mr Michael Steven Franklin CCE Harris Group Inc
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 2 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 10:00-12:15/Room M105
(SK.02) Skills & Knowledge: Estimating
Primary Author: Mr Charles P Woodward PE CCE CEP Burns & Roe Services Inc
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 3 Hour(s)
Time/Location: MON 12:00-6:00/Room M105
(SK.03) Skills & Knowledge: Planning and Scheduling
Primary Author: Dr Joseph J Orczyk PE Purdue University
Co-author(s): Dr Randy R Rapp PE CCE Purdue University
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 3 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 8:00-12:00/Room M105
(SK.04) Skills & Knowledge: Statusing for Progress and Forecasting Trends
Primary Author: Dr Joseph J Orczyk PE Purdue University
Co-author(s): Dr Randy R Rapp PE CCE Purdue University
Subject Level: TBD
Presentation Length: 3 Hour(s)
Time/Location: TUE 1:45-5:45/Room M105
(SK.05) Skills & Knowledge: Earned Value
Primary Author: Dr Sean Thomas Regan CCE CEP IMTC-MEI
Co-author(s): Ms Lisa Dianne Matas EVP Booz, Allen Hamilton
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 3 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 8:00-12:00/Room M105
(SK.06) Skills & Knowledge: Change Management for EPC Contracting
Primary Author: Mr Donald F McDonald Jr PE CCE PSP Fluor Enterprises Inc
Subject Level: Intermediate
Presentation Length: 2 Hour(s)
Time/Location: WED 1:15-3:45/Room M105
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