Abstract: So as estimators, how difficult can it get? We all recognize that every project is unique but, after acquiring a number of years’ experience, aren’t all projects the same? The answer of course is no, but raises another question - what is the most difficult type of estimating?
This paper explores the challenges of estimating themed attractions and highlights particular characteristics that make this a highly specialized skill and one that remains somewhat of a ‘black art’. Estimating attractions goes way beyond the standard divisions of ‘facility’ work. There are in fact thirty exclusive ‘show ‘divisions and an additional fifteen ‘ride’ divisions to consider. Factor in soft costs and you start to appreciate just how much is involved.
The industry is notoriously secretive - in an increasingly competitive market where owners offer the next tallest, biggest, fastest, thrilling experience in pursuit of that extra guest at the turnstile – secrecy is a must. What it also means however, is that information is scarce or unreliable, adding a further layer of complexity; one that positions attraction estimating among the most difficult. (CSC-1218) Contingency Use in Forecasting
Primary Author: Mr David W McNamara Faithful+Gould
Abstract: Much has already been written about how contingency can be calculated for any project. Methods include Monte Carlo based on risk profiles, as directed by the project owner, or most commonly set by the experience of skilled estimators working the project. After a brief summary of methods to determine contingency, this paper addresses how this cost category will be handled during the life of the project.
Several philosophies for contingency use and reporting will be presented, with a recommendation for megaprojects. How contingency will be used can have a significant impact upon how it is calculated, so estimators that do not have involvement in the execution stage need to take particular note.
Examples from the author’s experience will be presented, along with pros and cons of each approach. There is no one right way to do this: the method of contingency reporting varies by company, and often within companies. The best approach is what works for each project based on reporting and other controls requirements. (CSC-1268) S-Curve: A Relevant Planning Tool
Primary Author: Mr Aldo D. Mattos Aldo Mattos Consulting
Abstract: The development of an engineering project isn’t linear in terms of cost or resource usage. Its behavior is typically slow-fast-slow. For the planner and the manager, it is important to monitor the job progress as time goes by. The level of activity of a project tends to be a normal distribution for work or cost, and its cumulative function has the shape of a letter S. The S-Curve can be obtained from the schedule combined with cost or work. Mathematical equations may be used to generate a standard S-Curve to be compared to the project S-Curves and provide the planner with notable conclusions. In this paper the definition, properties and practical applications of the S-Curve are explained in detail. Examples and a case study are presented and some important conclusions are pointed out to highlight the relevance of this planning tool. (CSC-1285) Modularization Program Execution Optimization on Mega Oil Sands Projects
Primary Author: Mr Yuhong Wu CCE Suncor Energy Services Inc
Co-author(s): Dr Ming Lu University of Alberta
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Application
Time/Room: MON 3:45-4:45/McKinley
Abstract: In order to minimize overall construction cost and time subject to local resource constraints, oil sands projects in Northern Alberta have generally been executed using a modular approach, which involves fabricating and assembling modules and shipping them for installation on-site. However, despite potential cost and time savings, for a mega project with hundreds of engineered modules, a modular approach presents a significant challenge: how can one optimize cost and schedule while adequately meeting field construction demands and satisfying constraints such as budget, contractors’ production capacities, road bans and transportation conditions, module size, freight shipping limits, site layout and capacities of temporary site facilities. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a quantitative methodology which combines resource-constrained scheduling and Monte Carlo simulation-based risk analysis. This proposed methodology is applied in a case study of an Alberta-based Owner Company using realistic oil sands project data. This methodology could potentially improve overall project management for owner companies through streamlining decision-making and planning processes, most notably for the modular construction of mega projects. (CSC-1327) The Cost of Change
Primary Author: Mr Gregory J. Whiteside CCT Fircroft, contracted to Chevron Pipe Line
Abstract: There are a variety of common cost control activities on every project. Some of these activities are routine while other intermittent activities are involved with making corrections and responding to changes. This paper will examine the cost of these occasional activities through the use of several examples from the energy and chemicals industry that will help project teams understand the return that they are getting on their investments. It will discuss drivers for these costs, alternatives for controlling the costs, and tradeoffs for each alternative. While these costs may be minor for a single project, they are common on a large number of projects, and they are usually controlled with an enterprise-wide strategy. (CSC-1352) Controlling Cost through the Estimating and Risk Assessment Process
Primary Author: Mr Joseph W Wallwork PE CCE CFCC PSP ARCADIS
Abstract: The estimator is not someone to be brought into the project at the end just to perform the Engineer's Estimate. At that time it’s too late to impact the project. However, if during the development of the project the estimating process is used properly, the process will identify scope, related costs, potential savings, and act as a quality control of the documents refining how potential bidders will interpret the contract documents and identifying areas where greater clarity will define scope and/or result in reduced contractor risk. Greater clarity of scope and shared and/or reduced risk will result reduced project cost. When performing pre-construction estimates, the incomplete nature of the documents necessitates the addition of a project contingency to the estimated cost. While this can effective, the use of a risk assessment will identify through risk registers and workshops the areas and magnitude of the potential cost impacts due to the status and detail of the design. Using risk (Monte Carlo) techniques can effectively create a project specific contingency complete with the probability of its use. (CSC-1396) (Mis) Managing Change
Primary Author: Mr Sanjay Kelkar P.Eng. URS Flint ΓÇô Oil and Gas Division
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Application
Time/Room: SUN 4:30-5:30/Wilson A
Abstract: In the context of today’s oil sands industry, projects mobilize to site way before the detailed engineering is complete. Hence the scope given to Construction Contractors is never completed at the value that it was budgeted. Depending on various factors, changes such as scope changes, field deviations, overages occur in terms of field verified quantities against the budgeted quantities. Based on whether the change is approved or not, the progress can be earned, or not. This affects the overall project progress reporting as well as the capability to perform the bottoms-up forecast estimate of quantities, work-hours and cost.
The construction attitude remains that the work will get done when it will get done and at the price that it will be at completion. It becomes a Project Controls task to remain on top of these changes and manage and track them. There lies a thin line between managing and mismanaging these changes. Doing it well allows adequate control on the job. (CSC-1430) Developing a Project Control System for a Transmission Grid
Primary Author: Mr Vidya C Dixit CCE PSP Hill International, Inc.
Co-author(s): Mr Mark von Leffern EVP PSP Hill International
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Application
Time/Room: SUN 2:45-3:45/Wilson A
Abstract: The renewable energy initiative in California has attracted large scale development of solar, wind and geothermal farms due to both increasing energy demands as well as governmental pressure to meet clean energy goals. Massive infrastructure investment from local utility companies includes constructing new transmission lines and substations along with upgrading existing facilities that will connect these power sources to the grid. Compounding short construction schedules to meet customer need dates are ambitious procurement schedules and a lengthy environmental licensing process often spanning multiple agencies.
The paper presents the efforts involved in developing a project control system for a capital investment program to build an electric transmission system. The data referenced profiles an ongoing transmission and distribution project. This includes challenges in developing a master integrated schedule (MIS) as well as an integrated reporting and analysis platform to manage the project scope, schedule, cost, contractor schedules, procurement, quality and resources. Additionally, earned value and performance metrics were implemented to provide an early warning system of potential issues and manage the completion of the project.
